Kos on the Supreme Court:
Conservatives are hoping Bush has two retirements to work with, with O'Connor being the second. But given O'Connor's recent turn to the left on issues like the Death Penalty, and her contiinued strong support for Roe, it's hard to see her surrendering her seat under this administration.
Hmm. O'Connor has always been a wild card, but I don't see any evidence of a "turn to the left" so dramatic that she would put off her retirement just so Bush won't get to nominate her replacement. The story of O'Connor's highly negative reaction on Election Day 2000 to what looked, for a few hours, like a Gore victory is well known. (And of course O'Connor sided with the majority in Bush v. Gore.)
It's possible, of course, that the events of the last five years has changed O'Connor's mind about Bush - but is there any reason to think so?
I wouldn't be surprised to see both Rehnquist and O'Connor leaving the court relatively soon.