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Where's the evidence?

I've noticed something that puzzles me; liberal bloggers off-handedly referring to the 'fact' that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. E.g., Ezra Klein -
Ahmadinejad's ascension and Iran's admitted, verified race for nuclear weapons are both independently observable events that are rightfully heightening focus and fears on the country.
And Josh Marshall -
Iran ... pretty clearly does have a nuclear program, and a fairly ambitious one at that.
What I want to know is, what makes these guys so sure that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons? (I'm assuming that's what Marshall was referring to, and not Iran's peaceful nuclear power program.) Where is the evidence that is so overwhelming that we can go ahead and conclude that the Bush administration is right about Iran's intentions?

I don't mean this question to be snarky/sarcastic. I have no idea whether or not Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons; for all I know they are. And for all I know, there is solid evidence out there that indicates this. If this is the case, I just wish people would reference it. We have to be careful about this, and not let it become 'common knowledge' that 'of course' Iran has a weapons program unless the case actually is solid - lest we see a replay of the Iraq intelligence debacle. (And just releasing satellite photos with little labels that say 'Nuclear Weapons Here!' doesn't count.)

So I'm really asking: what is the evidence that Iran is going nuclear?

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